The Minister of Health, Prof. Isaac Adewole, recently confirmed reported cases of Lassa fever infection in Niger, Nasarawa, Plateau,Taraba, Rivers, Edo, Delta, Kogi, Ebonyi, Zamfara, Ekiti, Lagos State, Gombe State, Oyo State, Bauchi State, Kano State, Ondo State and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.
At a meeting of the National Council of Health in Abuja recently to adopt strategies for combating Lassa fever and other viral diseases in the country, he warned that health managers should not deceive executives by keeping silence on the spread of the disease.
The minister alleged that Ebonyi denied reporting five suspected Lassa fever cases and one death arising from the disease, describing the development as conspiracy that would hinder various precautions aimed at preventing the disease.
Adewole, nonetheless, assured the public that the Federal Government would maintain high level of alert to eliminate the disease soon.
“With the resources available, we will collectively eliminate the disease in Nigeria soon; we have special facilities around us and we have adequate human resource to address the challenge.
“We will strengthen the primary healthcare centres across the country to enhance the surveillance mechanism,’’ he said.
The minister promised Nigerians that 5,000 primary healthcare centres would be activated before December.
“A committee had been set up to map out healthcare centres across the country that would benefit from the programme; at least one primary healthcare centre will be functional in a ward,’’ Adewole said.
The minister further announced that six most affected states — Niger, Nasarawa, Taraba, Plateau, Bauchi and Ondo — would have Lassa fever diagnostic centres in addition to the six existing Lassa fever treatment centres.
The existing centres are located in Irrua in Edo, University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital, Maiduguri, Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, Kano,Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Lagos, University College Hospital, Ibadan and the National Centre for Disease Control, Asokoro, Abuja.
He said the ministry had directed immediate supply of adequate quantities of anti-viral drug for Lassa fever to all the affected states.
Adewole added that the ministry had also deployed rapid response teams to all affected states to assist in investigating and verifying fresh cases of the disease.
He also said relevant healthcare workers had been sensitised and mobilized to provide effective healthcare to patients in the affected states.
He advised family members and healthcare workers to always be careful and avoid contact with blood and body fluids while caring for the sick infected by the disease.
He warned Nigerians against the use of rat poison to eliminate rodents, observing that it could result in food poisoning.
He, however, solicited the use of traps and drying of food items in protected environment to stop rats and other animals from invading homes.
He said effective collaboration with states and local governments on prompt information on the outbreak of any disease and dangers posed by Lassa fever would go a long way in curtailing the virus.
The minister directed health facilities in the country to emphasise routine infection prevention and control measures and ensure that all Lassa fever patients were treated free.
“Government had also raised a four-man expert committee, led by Prof. Michael Asuzu, to visit Kano State, Niger and Bauchi State.
“The committee will embark on a fact finding mission, assess the current situation, document response experiences, identify gaps and proffer recommendations on how to prevent future occurrences,’’ he said.
According to him, the task of the committee is to document lessons learnt for better planning of an affective responsive.
Beside this, he said the Federal Government had also given the Committee on the Eradication of Lassa fever in Nigeria, headed by Prof. Oyewale Tomori, President, Nigeria Academy of Science, a mandate to provide a one-health approach to the complete elimination of the disease in the country.
Adewole said the committee and the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) would design an effective response plan for fighting and preventing the spread of Lassa fever in Nigeria.
He enjoined the committee to offer professional advice to the NCDC and the ministry to arrest current and future Lassa fever outbreaks in the country.
He advised the committee to use the fund provided for the assignment judiciously, promising that the ministry would provide enough funds.
In his response, Tomori pledged that the committee would do the needful to ensure the eradication of Lassa fever in Nigeria.
For the benefit of hindsight, 63 persons have died of Lassa fever out of 212 reported cases from the affected states as at Jan. 19.
Medical experts note that Lassa fever is an acute febrile illness involving bleeding and subsequent death in severe cases. It is caused by the Lassa fever virus with an incubation period of between six and 21 days.
The onset of the disease is accompanied by fever, general weakness, depression, headache, sore throat, muscle pain, chest pain, nausea and vomiting.
Other symptoms are diarrhoea, cough and bleeding from the mouth, nose, vagina or gastrointestinal tract and low blood pressure.
The host of the Lassa virus is a type of rats that has many breasts and lives in the bush and around residential areas.
The virus is shed in the urine and droppings of the rats and can be transmitted through direct contact, touching objects or eating food contaminated with these materials or through cuts or sores.
Person to person transmission also occurs most especially when a person comes in contact with the virus in the blood, tissue, secretions or excrements of an infected individual.
For effective prevention against Lassa fever spread, Dr Olutayo Haastrup, the spokesperson of the National Hospital Abuja, said that the hospital had designated isolation wards for the management of any suspected Lassa fever outbreak in Abuja and its environs.
According to him, the hospital had prepared four isolation wards and introduced standard precaution in handling any outbreak.
“The hospital is fully prepared, measures have been taken and as soon as we have any suspected case of Lassa, we will be proactive in handling it.
“We have created isolation wards in the hospital and all the necessary kits and facilities have been procured,’’ Haastrup said.
He said the hospital management had trained 200 health personnel in the hospital to raise more awareness on the treatment and management of the virus.
Further to these measures, the National Orientation Agency (NOA) in Nasarawa State said it had embarked on a statewide sensitisation to educate the people on ways to prevent the spread of Lassa fever in the state.
Mr Elisha Iyakwari, the Acting-State Director of the agency in the state, said the sensitisation was to educate the public on measures to adopt in the event of any suspected cases of the disease.
All in all, stakeholders in health sector commend the Federal Government on its response to the outbreak of the disease, observing that the government has demonstrated the will to prevent the spread Lassa fever and other virus diseases in Nigeria.
Friday, January 29, 2016
Thursday, January 28, 2016
Saraki replies Obasanjo: We are committed to good governance.
Saraki replies Obasanjo: We are committed to good governance
Senate President Bukola Saraki has acknowledged and replied a letter addressed to him by former president Olusegun Obasanjo.
In his letter, Obasanjo had accused members of the National Assembly of corruption and extravagant wastage of the nation’s resources despite the harsh economic reality confronting the nation. He had specifically alleged that the federal legislators allocated to themselves, salaries and allowances above the template approved by the Revenue Mobilisation, Allocation and Fiscal Commission for National Assembly members.
Responding on his twitter handle (@bukolasaraki), Saraki thanked the former president for his active role in reminding those at the helms of affairs of their responsibilities.
He assured the former president that the leadership and membership of the 8th Senate are committed to good governance, transparency, accountability, due process and responsiveness to the economic reality of our nation.
“It is for this reason that the legislative chamber has introduced bold and progressive reforms in the management of the finances of the National Assembly,” he said.
“This is of even greater importance during a tough fiscal period for our country. Like i said during my closing address at the plenary after our debate on the 2016 Budget, the Senate must lead by example in terms of our own funding, budgets and accountability – showing, beyond doubt, value for money.
“I have canvassed that we must lay bare the budget of the Senate, nay the National Assembly and its affiliated institutions.”
Saraki further wrote that he canvassed the need to strengthen the capacity of the legislative institution to carry our effective oversight of the executive arm so that the lawmakers can ensure the budget leads to the realization of the policy objectives of the Buhari Administration.
“Again, let me reiterate my position in the speech i made this morning on the need for us to work towards blocking all areas of revenue leakages while also strengthening the anti-corruption agencies so that the little resources that are now available will serve the interest of the overwhelming majority,” he added.
“As a former President and a father of the nation that we all hold in high esteem, i intend to reply the letter and outline the actions the Senate is taking to address his concerns.”
Senate President Bukola Saraki has acknowledged and replied a letter addressed to him by former president Olusegun Obasanjo.
In his letter, Obasanjo had accused members of the National Assembly of corruption and extravagant wastage of the nation’s resources despite the harsh economic reality confronting the nation. He had specifically alleged that the federal legislators allocated to themselves, salaries and allowances above the template approved by the Revenue Mobilisation, Allocation and Fiscal Commission for National Assembly members.
Responding on his twitter handle (@bukolasaraki), Saraki thanked the former president for his active role in reminding those at the helms of affairs of their responsibilities.
He assured the former president that the leadership and membership of the 8th Senate are committed to good governance, transparency, accountability, due process and responsiveness to the economic reality of our nation.
“It is for this reason that the legislative chamber has introduced bold and progressive reforms in the management of the finances of the National Assembly,” he said.
“This is of even greater importance during a tough fiscal period for our country. Like i said during my closing address at the plenary after our debate on the 2016 Budget, the Senate must lead by example in terms of our own funding, budgets and accountability – showing, beyond doubt, value for money.
“I have canvassed that we must lay bare the budget of the Senate, nay the National Assembly and its affiliated institutions.”
Saraki further wrote that he canvassed the need to strengthen the capacity of the legislative institution to carry our effective oversight of the executive arm so that the lawmakers can ensure the budget leads to the realization of the policy objectives of the Buhari Administration.
“Again, let me reiterate my position in the speech i made this morning on the need for us to work towards blocking all areas of revenue leakages while also strengthening the anti-corruption agencies so that the little resources that are now available will serve the interest of the overwhelming majority,” he added.
“As a former President and a father of the nation that we all hold in high esteem, i intend to reply the letter and outline the actions the Senate is taking to address his concerns.”
Supreme Court affirms election of Wike as Rivers governor
Supreme Court affirms election of Wike as Rivers governor.
The Supreme Court on Wednesday affirmed the election of Mr. Nyesom Wike as the governor of Rivers State.
A seven-man panel led by the Chief Justice of Nigeria, Justice Mahmud Mohammed affirmed his on Wednesday.
The court will, however, give reasons for the judgment on February 12.
In arriving at the ruling, the Supreme Court set aside the judgment of the tribunal and the Court of Appeal which had both sacked Wike.
Justice Kudirat Kekere-Ekun, who read the judgment held that the appeal filed by Wike was meritorious.
She held, “I find and hold that this appeal is meritorious and it is allowed. The judgement of the lower court delivered on the 16th of November 2015 and the judgment of the tribunal delivered on 24th October 2015 are hereby set aside.
“The petition of the petitioners is dismissed. The return of Nyesom Wike as governor of Rivers State by the Independent National Electoral Commission is restored.”
Justices Mohammed, Ibrahim Mohammed Sylvester Ngwuta, Kumai Akaahs and Amiru Sanusi, who were members of the panel agreed with Kekere-Ekun’s lead judgment.
The candidate of the All Progressives Congress in the April 11, 2015 poll, Dakuku Peterside and his party had filed a petition before the Rivers State Governorship Election Petitions Tribunal to challenge Wike’s return by INEC as the winner of the April 11, 2015 governorship election in the state.
The tribunal, which sat in Abuja held, in its judgment of October 24, 2015, in favour of the petitioners, voided the election on grounds of widespread violence and non-compliance with the Electoral Act.
It ordered a rerun election within 90 days.
Wike, PDP and INEC appealed the tribunal’s decision at the Court of Appeal, Abuja. The appellate court, in a unanimous judgment by a five-man panel on November 16, 2015 upheld the tribunal’s judgment.
The Supreme Court on Wednesday affirmed the election of Mr. Nyesom Wike as the governor of Rivers State.
A seven-man panel led by the Chief Justice of Nigeria, Justice Mahmud Mohammed affirmed his on Wednesday.
The court will, however, give reasons for the judgment on February 12.
In arriving at the ruling, the Supreme Court set aside the judgment of the tribunal and the Court of Appeal which had both sacked Wike.
Justice Kudirat Kekere-Ekun, who read the judgment held that the appeal filed by Wike was meritorious.
She held, “I find and hold that this appeal is meritorious and it is allowed. The judgement of the lower court delivered on the 16th of November 2015 and the judgment of the tribunal delivered on 24th October 2015 are hereby set aside.
“The petition of the petitioners is dismissed. The return of Nyesom Wike as governor of Rivers State by the Independent National Electoral Commission is restored.”
Justices Mohammed, Ibrahim Mohammed Sylvester Ngwuta, Kumai Akaahs and Amiru Sanusi, who were members of the panel agreed with Kekere-Ekun’s lead judgment.
The candidate of the All Progressives Congress in the April 11, 2015 poll, Dakuku Peterside and his party had filed a petition before the Rivers State Governorship Election Petitions Tribunal to challenge Wike’s return by INEC as the winner of the April 11, 2015 governorship election in the state.
The tribunal, which sat in Abuja held, in its judgment of October 24, 2015, in favour of the petitioners, voided the election on grounds of widespread violence and non-compliance with the Electoral Act.
It ordered a rerun election within 90 days.
Wike, PDP and INEC appealed the tribunal’s decision at the Court of Appeal, Abuja. The appellate court, in a unanimous judgment by a five-man panel on November 16, 2015 upheld the tribunal’s judgment.
Wednesday, January 27, 2016
Nigeria's wealth in few hands - President Muhammadu Buhari.
Nigeria's wealth in few hands - President Muhammadu Buhari.
President Muhammadu Buhari yesterday declared that it was difficult for Nigeria to develop when the nation’s wealth was in the hands of few individuals.
The Federal Government recently disclosed that 55 Nigerians, including 15 former governors, four ex-ministers and other serving and former public office holders stole N1.3 trillion in eight years.
The president, who spoke yesterday at the National Political Summit, organised by Save Democracy Group Africa in Abuja, said that a situation where politicians divert resources meant to provide drugs in the hospitals, schools for the children and construction of motorable roads, would not promote growth and development.
“We are all witnesses to some of the revelations of what some of the political holders did in the last administration; corruptly handled billions of dollars and funds meant to procure arms and equipment for the territorial integrity of Nigeria; equipment, including protective weapons and vehicles for the brave young men and women who our nation sent to battle.”
He described the theme of the summit, which is “2015 elections; consolidating the gains and building positive and sustainable democracy in Nigeria” as timely.
The president added that every step to balance a stable democracy was worth it.
Buhari, who was represented by Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo, described political leadership as a priesthood of sort, where leaders were expected to make sacrificial service to the people in place of personal ambition.
He said that democracy cannot heal the defects in human condition if politicians continued to steal the resources that were meant to improve standard of living of the people.
“But let me say that moral leaders are not born. They lived with the worst amongst us and came to an understanding of the responsibility placed upon him or her by virtue of political leadership and determined to choose the course of moral and exemplary leadership,” he said.
According to the president, leaders of the nations of the world that have managed to have a decent existence had to conquer the base and selfish desire to use power for personal gains.
He added that to address the deadly manifestation that was often seen in Africa and Nigeria, political leaders should look beyond democracy.
“My support for sustained dialogue amongst political stakeholders and key actors in our country will help in speeding up the political evolution of our country, grow our politics, building understanding and definitely help our people,” he added.
Buhari noted that while democracy was essential because it ensures that people are given a voice in the choice of their leaders that can be voided by corrupt practices and purchase of votes of the poor.
“My challenge to these distinguished bodies here is to seek answer to the question on how to ensure leadership in Nigeria and indeed Africa is altruistic, selfless and indeed committed to the common goal that will suit the people.
“How do we find a consensus as to the minimum and standards of the people by leadership?”
President of the Senate, Bukola Saraki, said the change demanded by Nigerians during the 2015 general elections has its own consequences.
According to him, the victory of the All Progressives Congress (APC) came at a time five major development challenges were confronting the nation from every side.
“From our depleting revenues and dwindling economic outlook as a result of falling oil prices to the massive infrastructure deficit, insecurity, unemployment, corruption and terrorism all congregating forcefully to dent our resolve to build a nation of our dreams,” Saraki said.
He, however, said these manifeschallenges might be the necessary catalyst and an opportunity to think outside the box and shape a new Nigeria nation built on a more solid economic and political base.
“We must then use our new found opportunity to attack the basic structural weaknesses and problems in our economy through measures to increase productivity, savings and investments.
“There is enough data to show that Nigeria can live in prosperity after oil; our agriculture potentials, solid mineral deposits, innovation industry and entertainment industry all show how diversification is already deepening the foundations of our economy,” he said.
Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, said the legislature has often intervened at the critical moments in the life of the nation through legislations and resolution to steer the ship of state aright.
According to the Speaker, the legislature in Nigeria has played a positive role towards electoral reforms and the quest for credible elections.
“It has used its legislative authority to stabilise elections. It has always provided the required legal framework for the conduct of elections in Nigeria.
“It passed the 2002, 2006, 2010 Electoral Acts to aid conduct of elections. The legislature led the charge in the amendment of the Constitution to usher in the independence of INEC,” he said.
“The National Assembly played one of its greatest stabilising roles in Nigeria’s democracy during the period of national emergency occasioned by the ill-health of late President Musa Yar’Adua.
“The legal logjam occasioned by the non-transmission of presidential authority to the then Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan to assume duties as acting president created a vacuum without a constitutional provision or precedent to fall back on,” Dogara added.
President Muhammadu Buhari yesterday declared that it was difficult for Nigeria to develop when the nation’s wealth was in the hands of few individuals.
The Federal Government recently disclosed that 55 Nigerians, including 15 former governors, four ex-ministers and other serving and former public office holders stole N1.3 trillion in eight years.
The president, who spoke yesterday at the National Political Summit, organised by Save Democracy Group Africa in Abuja, said that a situation where politicians divert resources meant to provide drugs in the hospitals, schools for the children and construction of motorable roads, would not promote growth and development.
“We are all witnesses to some of the revelations of what some of the political holders did in the last administration; corruptly handled billions of dollars and funds meant to procure arms and equipment for the territorial integrity of Nigeria; equipment, including protective weapons and vehicles for the brave young men and women who our nation sent to battle.”
He described the theme of the summit, which is “2015 elections; consolidating the gains and building positive and sustainable democracy in Nigeria” as timely.
The president added that every step to balance a stable democracy was worth it.
Buhari, who was represented by Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo, described political leadership as a priesthood of sort, where leaders were expected to make sacrificial service to the people in place of personal ambition.
He said that democracy cannot heal the defects in human condition if politicians continued to steal the resources that were meant to improve standard of living of the people.
“But let me say that moral leaders are not born. They lived with the worst amongst us and came to an understanding of the responsibility placed upon him or her by virtue of political leadership and determined to choose the course of moral and exemplary leadership,” he said.
According to the president, leaders of the nations of the world that have managed to have a decent existence had to conquer the base and selfish desire to use power for personal gains.
He added that to address the deadly manifestation that was often seen in Africa and Nigeria, political leaders should look beyond democracy.
“My support for sustained dialogue amongst political stakeholders and key actors in our country will help in speeding up the political evolution of our country, grow our politics, building understanding and definitely help our people,” he added.
Buhari noted that while democracy was essential because it ensures that people are given a voice in the choice of their leaders that can be voided by corrupt practices and purchase of votes of the poor.
“My challenge to these distinguished bodies here is to seek answer to the question on how to ensure leadership in Nigeria and indeed Africa is altruistic, selfless and indeed committed to the common goal that will suit the people.
“How do we find a consensus as to the minimum and standards of the people by leadership?”
President of the Senate, Bukola Saraki, said the change demanded by Nigerians during the 2015 general elections has its own consequences.
According to him, the victory of the All Progressives Congress (APC) came at a time five major development challenges were confronting the nation from every side.
“From our depleting revenues and dwindling economic outlook as a result of falling oil prices to the massive infrastructure deficit, insecurity, unemployment, corruption and terrorism all congregating forcefully to dent our resolve to build a nation of our dreams,” Saraki said.
He, however, said these manifeschallenges might be the necessary catalyst and an opportunity to think outside the box and shape a new Nigeria nation built on a more solid economic and political base.
“We must then use our new found opportunity to attack the basic structural weaknesses and problems in our economy through measures to increase productivity, savings and investments.
“There is enough data to show that Nigeria can live in prosperity after oil; our agriculture potentials, solid mineral deposits, innovation industry and entertainment industry all show how diversification is already deepening the foundations of our economy,” he said.
Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, said the legislature has often intervened at the critical moments in the life of the nation through legislations and resolution to steer the ship of state aright.
According to the Speaker, the legislature in Nigeria has played a positive role towards electoral reforms and the quest for credible elections.
“It has used its legislative authority to stabilise elections. It has always provided the required legal framework for the conduct of elections in Nigeria.
“It passed the 2002, 2006, 2010 Electoral Acts to aid conduct of elections. The legislature led the charge in the amendment of the Constitution to usher in the independence of INEC,” he said.
“The National Assembly played one of its greatest stabilising roles in Nigeria’s democracy during the period of national emergency occasioned by the ill-health of late President Musa Yar’Adua.
“The legal logjam occasioned by the non-transmission of presidential authority to the then Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan to assume duties as acting president created a vacuum without a constitutional provision or precedent to fall back on,” Dogara added.
Tuesday, January 26, 2016
Kachikwu must be questioned over crude swap deals –Reps
Kachikwu must be questioned over crude swap deals –Reps
Th e H o u s e o f representatives said on Monday that the current Minister of Petroleum Resources would be invited to answer questions on the controversial Refined Product Exchange Agreement contracts executed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation and its subsidiary, the Pipelines Product Marketing Company, between 2011 and 2015.
Otherwise known as SWAP, the deals involved the exchange of crude oil for refined petroleum products in which the corporation gave out part of its 445,000 barrels daily share of crude to trading companies.
The House Ad hoc Committee , which is investigating the deals, already had evidence that crude worth over $24bn exchanged hands between the government agencies and some crude marketing firms, including Duke Oil and Tranfigura.
The committee is chaired by an All Progressives Congress lawmaker from Kwara State, Mr. Zakari Mohammed.
Mohammed told us in Abuja that the minister would have to appear before the committee to speak on the role of his ministry in the deals.
When reminded that President Muhammadu Buhari doubles as the petroleum minister, Mohammed replied that the President could delegate his Minister of State, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, to appear before the committee.
He explained that the committee was not interested in knowing whether Buhari or Kachikwu was not in office when the contracts were signed.
Mohammed added, “This is an investigation. The committee will invite the minister we know today. If the President cannot come, that is why there is a minister of state; Mr. President can delegate him.
“Let the minister come and tell the committee that he knows nothing about the transactions because he was not the minister at that time.
“They should lead us to the minister (ex-ministers) who have the right information.”
Mohammed stated that the minister and the NNPC would be the last to testify before the panel, following which the committee would tidy up its report on the findings.
The committee had on Thursday last week summoned the chief executive officers of two firms, Ontario and Aiteo, to appear on Tuesday (today) without fail or risk arrest by the Inspector-General of Police, Mr. Solomon Arase.
The two got sub-contracts from Duke Oil’s share of 33.7 million metric tonnes of crude.
The summons followed the disclosure by the PPMC that Ontario still had $98m worth of refined products to deliver to the country while Aiteo owed Nigeria $37m worth of products.
Mohammed had complained last week that the two firms had refused to appear before the committee preferring to send legal representations.
He said, “After sending invitations to them and they have failed to turn up, the next step is to summon them.”
Th e H o u s e o f representatives said on Monday that the current Minister of Petroleum Resources would be invited to answer questions on the controversial Refined Product Exchange Agreement contracts executed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation and its subsidiary, the Pipelines Product Marketing Company, between 2011 and 2015.
Otherwise known as SWAP, the deals involved the exchange of crude oil for refined petroleum products in which the corporation gave out part of its 445,000 barrels daily share of crude to trading companies.
The House Ad hoc Committee , which is investigating the deals, already had evidence that crude worth over $24bn exchanged hands between the government agencies and some crude marketing firms, including Duke Oil and Tranfigura.
The committee is chaired by an All Progressives Congress lawmaker from Kwara State, Mr. Zakari Mohammed.
Mohammed told us in Abuja that the minister would have to appear before the committee to speak on the role of his ministry in the deals.
When reminded that President Muhammadu Buhari doubles as the petroleum minister, Mohammed replied that the President could delegate his Minister of State, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, to appear before the committee.
He explained that the committee was not interested in knowing whether Buhari or Kachikwu was not in office when the contracts were signed.
Mohammed added, “This is an investigation. The committee will invite the minister we know today. If the President cannot come, that is why there is a minister of state; Mr. President can delegate him.
“Let the minister come and tell the committee that he knows nothing about the transactions because he was not the minister at that time.
“They should lead us to the minister (ex-ministers) who have the right information.”
Mohammed stated that the minister and the NNPC would be the last to testify before the panel, following which the committee would tidy up its report on the findings.
The committee had on Thursday last week summoned the chief executive officers of two firms, Ontario and Aiteo, to appear on Tuesday (today) without fail or risk arrest by the Inspector-General of Police, Mr. Solomon Arase.
The two got sub-contracts from Duke Oil’s share of 33.7 million metric tonnes of crude.
The summons followed the disclosure by the PPMC that Ontario still had $98m worth of refined products to deliver to the country while Aiteo owed Nigeria $37m worth of products.
Mohammed had complained last week that the two firms had refused to appear before the committee preferring to send legal representations.
He said, “After sending invitations to them and they have failed to turn up, the next step is to summon them.”
Jonathan should be probe and jailed, if found guilty – NEF
Jonathan should be probe and jailed, if found guilty – NEF
The Deputy National Leader of the Northern Elders Forum, Dr. Paul Unongo, has said that former President Goodluck Jonathan should be probed and jailed over the $2.1bn arms deal.
Unongo, who was power and steel minister in the Second Republic, said the former President should be jailed if found to have corruptly enriched himself in the $2.1bn arms deal and refuses to refund his share of the loot.
Unongo, however, said the former President deserved consideration for conceding defeat in the last general elections and by helping the country to avert an impending national crisis.
These two facts, according to him, should make his punishments mild if found guilty of stolen funds.
Unongo, who spoke in a telephone interview on Monday, said, “There are three points to make on the arms probe. The first is that Jonathan deserves a special consideration for his contribution to democratic culture in Nigeria and for enabling us to avert a national crisis by conceding defeat during the general elections. He also mobilised support for the present government. Jonathan was great in defeat. He is a hero for doing this.
“Secondly, if the anti-graft agency can prove beyond reasonable doubt that he diverted public funds and if Jonathan agrees to return the stolen funds, he should not be humiliated but he should be given due consideration.
“Thirdly, if it is proved by a transparent process that he stole the country’s money and he refuses to return it, then the law should take its course, whether he is a former President or not. He should be prosecuted and jailed. This is important in order to serve as a deterrent to others.”
Unongo slammed Jonathan’s advisers who have been justifying their roles in the alleged diversion of the arms funds based on the excuse that they acted under instructions from the Presidency.
He said Jonathan’s advisers should be held liable for their actions because they had the opportunity to advise the President against any form of illegality.
According to him, Jonathan’s advisers and ministers who were uncomfortable with his style of governance should have resigned their appointments if the President did not follow their advice.
“I was a minister in this country and that did not stop me from speaking the truth to the President. Jonathan’s advisers who are claiming they acted under instructions to justify their alleged theft are lying.
“Jonathan paid them to advise him so they are liable for their actions. If you advised Jonathan rightly and he said no, you should have resigned your appointment,” he stressed.
The former minister also added that the Federal Government had not ordered the arrest of Jonathan because the government ‘was trying to be careful and abide by the dictates of the law in order not to be seen as dictatorial’.
He said, “I think President Buhari is trying to be careful in not summoning Jonathan so far. I don’t believe there was an agreement President Buhari had not to probe Jonathan as being reported.”
The Deputy National Leader of the Northern Elders Forum, Dr. Paul Unongo, has said that former President Goodluck Jonathan should be probed and jailed over the $2.1bn arms deal.
Unongo, who was power and steel minister in the Second Republic, said the former President should be jailed if found to have corruptly enriched himself in the $2.1bn arms deal and refuses to refund his share of the loot.
Unongo, however, said the former President deserved consideration for conceding defeat in the last general elections and by helping the country to avert an impending national crisis.
These two facts, according to him, should make his punishments mild if found guilty of stolen funds.
Unongo, who spoke in a telephone interview on Monday, said, “There are three points to make on the arms probe. The first is that Jonathan deserves a special consideration for his contribution to democratic culture in Nigeria and for enabling us to avert a national crisis by conceding defeat during the general elections. He also mobilised support for the present government. Jonathan was great in defeat. He is a hero for doing this.
“Secondly, if the anti-graft agency can prove beyond reasonable doubt that he diverted public funds and if Jonathan agrees to return the stolen funds, he should not be humiliated but he should be given due consideration.
“Thirdly, if it is proved by a transparent process that he stole the country’s money and he refuses to return it, then the law should take its course, whether he is a former President or not. He should be prosecuted and jailed. This is important in order to serve as a deterrent to others.”
Unongo slammed Jonathan’s advisers who have been justifying their roles in the alleged diversion of the arms funds based on the excuse that they acted under instructions from the Presidency.
He said Jonathan’s advisers should be held liable for their actions because they had the opportunity to advise the President against any form of illegality.
According to him, Jonathan’s advisers and ministers who were uncomfortable with his style of governance should have resigned their appointments if the President did not follow their advice.
“I was a minister in this country and that did not stop me from speaking the truth to the President. Jonathan’s advisers who are claiming they acted under instructions to justify their alleged theft are lying.
“Jonathan paid them to advise him so they are liable for their actions. If you advised Jonathan rightly and he said no, you should have resigned your appointment,” he stressed.
The former minister also added that the Federal Government had not ordered the arrest of Jonathan because the government ‘was trying to be careful and abide by the dictates of the law in order not to be seen as dictatorial’.
He said, “I think President Buhari is trying to be careful in not summoning Jonathan so far. I don’t believe there was an agreement President Buhari had not to probe Jonathan as being reported.”
Monday, January 25, 2016
CAMPAIGN MOTIVATIONAL SPEECH
CAMPAIGN MOTIVATIONAL SPEECH
Good afternoon ladies and gentle men, our Ejigbo local council development area has come to a crossroad where the masses are suffering from lack of infrastructural development, affordable and quality education, free health care systems, good drainage system, empowerment for youth, men and women etc, so we need to find a way to win the forth coming LGA/LCDA election.
We need to ask ourselves the question, " how can we win the election "
Unfortunately, many times people think the decision is made on the basis of anecdotal evidence or by simply assuming that because one political party is dominant or at the central, victory is assured. What we need of course is an analysis of the last general election result and demographics of the electorate in Ejigbo Lcda.
We need to get the catalyst or event that would change the dynamics of the election for us to be able to achieve total victory the same way we did it during the state house of Assembly and Federal house of representative election.
We also need a campaign plan which must contain the theory of how to win both the primary election and main LGA/Lcda election. The theory should be backed by empirical evidence rather than speculation or hear say.
Campaign methodology is developed from both winning and losing elections. And luckily for us we won the four electoral positions in oshodi/Isolo LGA. As a result of this,
1. We need more volunteers
2. We need questionnaires
3. We also need to focus our efforts on what it takes to win because " Successful implementation takes experience in election campaigns. You may have the greatest campaign plan ever written, but if you can't implement it well, it is worthless.
Thank you all for your support.
ADEFENWA IBRAHIM OLAYINKA
A10 - action!action!!action!!!
Good afternoon ladies and gentle men, our Ejigbo local council development area has come to a crossroad where the masses are suffering from lack of infrastructural development, affordable and quality education, free health care systems, good drainage system, empowerment for youth, men and women etc, so we need to find a way to win the forth coming LGA/LCDA election.
We need to ask ourselves the question, " how can we win the election "
Unfortunately, many times people think the decision is made on the basis of anecdotal evidence or by simply assuming that because one political party is dominant or at the central, victory is assured. What we need of course is an analysis of the last general election result and demographics of the electorate in Ejigbo Lcda.
We need to get the catalyst or event that would change the dynamics of the election for us to be able to achieve total victory the same way we did it during the state house of Assembly and Federal house of representative election.
We also need a campaign plan which must contain the theory of how to win both the primary election and main LGA/Lcda election. The theory should be backed by empirical evidence rather than speculation or hear say.
Campaign methodology is developed from both winning and losing elections. And luckily for us we won the four electoral positions in oshodi/Isolo LGA. As a result of this,
1. We need more volunteers
2. We need questionnaires
3. We also need to focus our efforts on what it takes to win because " Successful implementation takes experience in election campaigns. You may have the greatest campaign plan ever written, but if you can't implement it well, it is worthless.
Thank you all for your support.
ADEFENWA IBRAHIM OLAYINKA
A10 - action!action!!action!!!
Magu(EFCC Boss) Meets With Soyinka
Magu(EFCC Boss) Meets With Soyinka
Nobel Laureate, Professor Wole Soyinka has met with the chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) Ibrahim Magu.
EFCC boss revealed that funds looted by Nigerian politicians during the government of Goodluck Jonathan were enough to fund three years of the country’s budget.
Magu used the opportunity to speak about his plans on the crackdown on the corrupt officials in Nigeria.
On his own part, Soyinka mocked the anti-graft chieftain, wishing him “good luck, but not that other one.”
EFCC chief was accompanied by some of his assistances. The famous Nigerian writer showed his unfettered support to Magu, advising him to do all the right things needed for the arrest the culture of impunity and corruption in Nigeria.
Soyinka commented on the investigation of purchase contracts for the army and the arrest of former National Security Adviser, Sambo Dasuki.
He also mentioned former oil minister, Diezani Alison-Madueke, who is now in the UK undergoing treatment for cancer, noting that her health had been used to milk public sympathy.
At the same time Diezani has yesterday honoured the invitation by the London police and was granted bail.
Nobel Laureate, Professor Wole Soyinka has met with the chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) Ibrahim Magu.
EFCC boss revealed that funds looted by Nigerian politicians during the government of Goodluck Jonathan were enough to fund three years of the country’s budget.
Magu used the opportunity to speak about his plans on the crackdown on the corrupt officials in Nigeria.
On his own part, Soyinka mocked the anti-graft chieftain, wishing him “good luck, but not that other one.”
EFCC chief was accompanied by some of his assistances. The famous Nigerian writer showed his unfettered support to Magu, advising him to do all the right things needed for the arrest the culture of impunity and corruption in Nigeria.
Soyinka commented on the investigation of purchase contracts for the army and the arrest of former National Security Adviser, Sambo Dasuki.
He also mentioned former oil minister, Diezani Alison-Madueke, who is now in the UK undergoing treatment for cancer, noting that her health had been used to milk public sympathy.
At the same time Diezani has yesterday honoured the invitation by the London police and was granted bail.
Budget: N’Assembly plans to review oil benchmark
Budget: N’Assembly plans to review oil benchmark
Members of the Senate and the House of Representatives are in a quandary over the crude oil benchmark to recommend for the 2016 budget.
The N6.07tn budget has had two days of debate on the general principles so far and will likely be referred to the committee stage on conclusion of the second reading this week.
We gathered that while a majority of the lawmakers believed that the $38 per barrel proposed by President Muhammadu Buhari was no longer realistic in view of the dipping price of crude oil, they were also not sure of how much was realistic.
Investigations showed that even while debating the budget on the floor of the house,the lawmakers shied away from suggesting a figure they considered to be realistic, but they generally felt that $38 was not achievable.
“The reason is not far-fetched. The price of crude oil has been very unstable in the past weeks.
“As a matter of fact, let me say, every day, it falls. Members find it difficult to peg it at this or that price,” a committee chairman told our correspondent.
It was gathered that members feared that oil price was already under $28, about $10 less than the budgeted figure, at a time the budget had yet to reach the committee stage.
“The volatility (of crude price) is worrisome. The budget will first go to the committee stage, where Ministries, Departments and Agencies will come to defend their proposals.
“That exercise may take the whole of February to be completed. It then means that nobody can guess what a realistic crude benchmark will be in the days ahead.
“There is confusion and we can’t really say anything (benchmark) that can stand the test of time for now,” says another senior official.
The budget came with a N2.2tn deficit, including a domestic borrowing of N984bn and foreign borrowing of N900bn.
There were claims last week that the Federal Government might resort to borrowing above the budgeted borrowing plan to fund the budget.
When contacted, the Majority Leader, Mr. Femi Gbajabiamila, said the best solution was for the government to forget about relying on oil revenue to fund this year’s budget.
According to Gbajabiamila, the National Assembly can just retain the $38 (benchmark) the way the President brought it, but suggested that the government should ignore oil revenue this year.
He advised that attention should be shifted to non-oil revenue sources, including taxes, as the escape routes.
The Majority Leader said, “I have always said we should ignore the oil revenue for the purpose of the 2016 budget and pretend it does not exist and base the budget on other revenues, including maximised tax revenue.
“Any oil revenue should be treated as extra revenue or surplus in an amended or supplementary budget.
“As it is, the benchmark ($38) should remain as it is because we cannot keep going back and forth. What can be done is to bring any amendment (to the budget) at some point midway when there may be some stable and realistic price.
“Do not forget that the benchmark ($38) is premised on the Medium Term Expenditure Framework as passed by the House.”
Also, strong indications emerged on Sunday that the Senate had concluded plans to seek the opinion of both domestic and foreign-based economists and financial experts on the best approach to adopt in arriving at a realistic oil benchmark for the 2016 budget implementation.
A cross section of the senators who spoke with one of our correspondents on the issue were of the view that the $38 per barrel proposed by President Buhari, on December 22, 2015, was no longer feasible following the dwindling oil price in the global market.
However, while some suggested the downward review of the benchmark to as low as $27 per barrel, others argued that the Buhari’s proposal should be left unchanged in anticipation of the increment in oil prices in the first quarter of the year.
The Senate spokesperson, Senator Sabi Abdullahi, and the Chairman, Senate Committee on Finance, John Enoh, argued that the most realistic option at the moment was for the National Assembly to approve the downward review of the benchmark in conformity with current oil price.
Members of the Senate and the House of Representatives are in a quandary over the crude oil benchmark to recommend for the 2016 budget.
The N6.07tn budget has had two days of debate on the general principles so far and will likely be referred to the committee stage on conclusion of the second reading this week.
We gathered that while a majority of the lawmakers believed that the $38 per barrel proposed by President Muhammadu Buhari was no longer realistic in view of the dipping price of crude oil, they were also not sure of how much was realistic.
Investigations showed that even while debating the budget on the floor of the house,the lawmakers shied away from suggesting a figure they considered to be realistic, but they generally felt that $38 was not achievable.
“The reason is not far-fetched. The price of crude oil has been very unstable in the past weeks.
“As a matter of fact, let me say, every day, it falls. Members find it difficult to peg it at this or that price,” a committee chairman told our correspondent.
It was gathered that members feared that oil price was already under $28, about $10 less than the budgeted figure, at a time the budget had yet to reach the committee stage.
“The volatility (of crude price) is worrisome. The budget will first go to the committee stage, where Ministries, Departments and Agencies will come to defend their proposals.
“That exercise may take the whole of February to be completed. It then means that nobody can guess what a realistic crude benchmark will be in the days ahead.
“There is confusion and we can’t really say anything (benchmark) that can stand the test of time for now,” says another senior official.
The budget came with a N2.2tn deficit, including a domestic borrowing of N984bn and foreign borrowing of N900bn.
There were claims last week that the Federal Government might resort to borrowing above the budgeted borrowing plan to fund the budget.
When contacted, the Majority Leader, Mr. Femi Gbajabiamila, said the best solution was for the government to forget about relying on oil revenue to fund this year’s budget.
According to Gbajabiamila, the National Assembly can just retain the $38 (benchmark) the way the President brought it, but suggested that the government should ignore oil revenue this year.
He advised that attention should be shifted to non-oil revenue sources, including taxes, as the escape routes.
The Majority Leader said, “I have always said we should ignore the oil revenue for the purpose of the 2016 budget and pretend it does not exist and base the budget on other revenues, including maximised tax revenue.
“Any oil revenue should be treated as extra revenue or surplus in an amended or supplementary budget.
“As it is, the benchmark ($38) should remain as it is because we cannot keep going back and forth. What can be done is to bring any amendment (to the budget) at some point midway when there may be some stable and realistic price.
“Do not forget that the benchmark ($38) is premised on the Medium Term Expenditure Framework as passed by the House.”
Also, strong indications emerged on Sunday that the Senate had concluded plans to seek the opinion of both domestic and foreign-based economists and financial experts on the best approach to adopt in arriving at a realistic oil benchmark for the 2016 budget implementation.
A cross section of the senators who spoke with one of our correspondents on the issue were of the view that the $38 per barrel proposed by President Buhari, on December 22, 2015, was no longer feasible following the dwindling oil price in the global market.
However, while some suggested the downward review of the benchmark to as low as $27 per barrel, others argued that the Buhari’s proposal should be left unchanged in anticipation of the increment in oil prices in the first quarter of the year.
The Senate spokesperson, Senator Sabi Abdullahi, and the Chairman, Senate Committee on Finance, John Enoh, argued that the most realistic option at the moment was for the National Assembly to approve the downward review of the benchmark in conformity with current oil price.
We don’t recognise Biafran passport – US, UK Speaks
We don’t recognise Biafran passport – US, UK Speaks
The governments of the United States and the United Kingdom have said they do not recognise the passports being issued by the Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra.
The National Director of Information, MASSOB, Sunny Okereafor, had said two weeks ago that the passport was valid worldwide, adding that the travel document costs N5,000 while its renewal costs N2,000
He had said, “I assure you that the Biafran passport is valid. Except Nigeria, other countries of the world accept Biafran passport and allow our citizens to travel with it. In Europe, North and South America, Biafran passport is accepted. Nigeria is the only country that seizes Biafran passport. Go to neighbouring Ghana here, they will stamp the passport for you. Don’t be confused by the propaganda of the Nigerian government that there is nothing like Biafra passport.
“MASSOB appeals to Biafran citizens to procure their passport and use it to travel. If you doubt me, get a Nigerian passport while I have my Biafran passport; when we get to Europe, you will see who they will welcome than the other. Many people with the Nigerian passport have been repatriated, but have you heard of anybody with Biafran passport receiving such ill-treatment?”
However, our correspondent sent an email to the American consulate in Lagos to inquire from the US regarding the claim of MASSOB.
In his response, the Deputy Public Affairs Officer at the consulate, Frank Sellin, said, “The United States does not consider passports purporting to be from a Biafra entity to be a valid legal document for purposes of visa issuance.” and a similar response from the British Government was sent to us.
The UK recalled that it did not support the disintegration of Nigeria during the 1967 Biafran War and had not changed its stance 49 years after.
A statement by the Press and Public Affairs Officer, British High Commission, Abuja, Mr. Joe Abuku, read in part, “The answer is unequivocally ‘no’. The UK does not recognise the so-called Biafran passport
“The position of the UK Government during the Biafran War is a matter of historical record. The UK Government’s position, which reflected the Charter of the Organisation of African Unity, was to recognise the borders laid down at independence.
“The Biafran War caused great suffering and the UK supported the reconciliation work that followed the conflict. The UK supports the territorial integrity of Nigeria and the Nigerian Government’s commitment to work for a secure and prosperous Nigeria for all Nigerians.”
The governments of the United States and the United Kingdom have said they do not recognise the passports being issued by the Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra.
The National Director of Information, MASSOB, Sunny Okereafor, had said two weeks ago that the passport was valid worldwide, adding that the travel document costs N5,000 while its renewal costs N2,000
He had said, “I assure you that the Biafran passport is valid. Except Nigeria, other countries of the world accept Biafran passport and allow our citizens to travel with it. In Europe, North and South America, Biafran passport is accepted. Nigeria is the only country that seizes Biafran passport. Go to neighbouring Ghana here, they will stamp the passport for you. Don’t be confused by the propaganda of the Nigerian government that there is nothing like Biafra passport.
“MASSOB appeals to Biafran citizens to procure their passport and use it to travel. If you doubt me, get a Nigerian passport while I have my Biafran passport; when we get to Europe, you will see who they will welcome than the other. Many people with the Nigerian passport have been repatriated, but have you heard of anybody with Biafran passport receiving such ill-treatment?”
However, our correspondent sent an email to the American consulate in Lagos to inquire from the US regarding the claim of MASSOB.
In his response, the Deputy Public Affairs Officer at the consulate, Frank Sellin, said, “The United States does not consider passports purporting to be from a Biafra entity to be a valid legal document for purposes of visa issuance.” and a similar response from the British Government was sent to us.
The UK recalled that it did not support the disintegration of Nigeria during the 1967 Biafran War and had not changed its stance 49 years after.
A statement by the Press and Public Affairs Officer, British High Commission, Abuja, Mr. Joe Abuku, read in part, “The answer is unequivocally ‘no’. The UK does not recognise the so-called Biafran passport
“The position of the UK Government during the Biafran War is a matter of historical record. The UK Government’s position, which reflected the Charter of the Organisation of African Unity, was to recognise the borders laid down at independence.
“The Biafran War caused great suffering and the UK supported the reconciliation work that followed the conflict. The UK supports the territorial integrity of Nigeria and the Nigerian Government’s commitment to work for a secure and prosperous Nigeria for all Nigerians.”
Sunday, January 24, 2016
Buhari’s Economic Policies Are Foolish - Says Financial Times UK
Buhari’s Economic Policies Are Foolish - Says Financial Times UK
The Financial Times UK has described the economic policies of the President Muhammadu Buhari administration as the ‘height of foolishness’.
The Financial Times UK has faulted President Muhammdu Buhari’s economic policies
The leading international business publication in an article by Steve Johnson, the deputy editor of the Financial Times, said the economic policies of the Buhari administration is doomed to fail because it is tailored after Venezuela’s exchange rate policy and China’s failed equity market strategy.
The article faulted the circuit breaker on the Nigerian stock exchange which pauses trading for 30 minutes if stock prices fall 5 per cent and will cease for the day if it is triggered twice in a session, or after 1.45pm.
It noted that this month, Beijing abandoned a similar policy after just four days, stating that in a falling market the existence of the circuit breaker encouraged more selling as traders rushed to exit while they could.
Quoting John Ashbourne, Africa economist at Capital Economics, it said:
“It is hardly confidence-inspiring that Nigeria is copying a Chinese policy that is widely seen to have failed."
Nigeria plans to create a $25 billion fund with public and private financing to modernize infrastructure and avoid a recession.
Copying Venezuela’s exchange rate policy and China’s failed equity market strategy might seem the height of foolishness.
But, at least in the opinion of John Ashbourne, Africa economist at Capital Economics, that is precisely what Nigeria, the continent’s largest economy, has just done.
“Low oil prices are battering Nigeria’s export-dependent economy, but it’s the government’s market-distorting response that risks pushing the country into a Venezuela-style crisis,” Mr Ashbourne says.
“Nigeria is sliding towards a Venezuela-style FX regime and adopting a Chinese-style stock market circuit breaker. Neither will reassure foreign investors, many of whom seem to be eyeing the exits.”
Both measures were announced after markets closed on Friday, January 15.
The circuit breaker on the Nigerian stock exchange, one of the worst performing in the world this year with a fall of 17.7 per cent, will pause trading for 30 minutes if stock prices fall 5 per cent. Trading will cease for the day if it is triggered twice in a session, or after 1.45pm.
This month, Beijing abandoned a similar policy after just four days, concluding that in a falling market the existence of the circuit breaker encouraged more selling as traders rushed to exit while they could.
“The effect is akin to calling last orders at a crowded bar,” Mr Ashbourne says. “It is hardly confidence-inspiring that Nigeria is copying a Chinese policy that is widely seen to have failed.”
He accepts that Nigeria’s circuit breaker may not be as badly designed as the Chinese version. Whereas the NSE All Share index rarely falls by 5 per cent a day, the Shanghai Composite did so a dozen times in 2015. The NSE’s version has not yet been called into action.
Nevertheless, Mr Ashbourne says that using a circuit breaker to shore up the market, rather than to avoid volatility, is “deeply flawed”.
Simultaneously, the central bank has said it will stop selling US dollars into the interbank FX market.
Nigeria has operated a de facto twin currency system for the naira since February 2015, when the bank held the official interbank rate at N199 to the dollar to avoid a spike in inflation. The unofficial rate, available at bureaux de change, has plunged to N300/$, as the first chart shows.
However Mr Ashbourne argues the latest move takes Nigeria a step along the road to a Venezuela-style scenario, where the dollar now buys 913 bolívars on the black market, according to dolartoday.com, compared with an unofficial rate of 6.28/$.
“Suspending US dollar sales to the interbank market will force consumers and firms to source dollars at bureaux de change,” he says, while providing an implicit subsidy for companies and individuals with the connections needed to access the official rate.
As the second chart shows, Nigeria’s reluctance to let the naira’s official exchange rate weaken means it has borne the brunt of the sharp fall in oil prices since the middle of 2014.
In naira terms, the oil price has fallen from $115 a barrel to around $35, with the modicum of weakening permitted so far doing little to take the edge off the fall in oil prices to $28 in dollar terms.
In contrast, Russia, which has allowed the rouble to fall sharply, is still seeing oil prices of around $65 in local currency terms, with many other oil exporters such as Brazil and Azerbaijan also seeing more cushioning of the blow than Nigeria.
Charles Robertson, chief global economist at Renaissance Capital, who drew up the second chart, expects Nigeria to bow to the seemingly inevitable and devalue the naira, given that his calculation of fair value is N305/$, very close to the current black market rate.
He notes that frontier market funds are now underweight Nigerian equities, and believes that international investors “are likely to remain on the sidelines,” barring an obvious catalyst for change.
Nevertheless he believes a devaluation to N250/$, “while no longer sufficient to ease all dollar shortages … would be good enough to warrant investors taking a fresh look at Nigeria, especially if they expect a rebound in the oil price”.
Daniel Salter, global equity strategist at RenCap, has been busy analysing just when equity market investors should consider returning to a freshly devalued Nigeria, if history is anything to go by.
Mr Salter analysed 13 emerging market currency devaluations since 1994 in countries ranging from Mexico and Turkey to Egypt and South Korea.
His conclusions are that it is rarely worth buying in anticipation of a currency devaluation and that, on average, equity markets do not hit their low point (in dollar terms) until 99 days after the start of the currency devaluation.
This delay can vary significantly, though, as the final chart shows. In the case of South Korea in 1997 the stock market troughed the day before the won started to fall. In Nigeria itself, in 2009, this point was reached after 35 days.
However in the cases of Thailand (1997), the Philippines (1998) and Egypt (2001), it would have paid equity market investors to stay out for at least six months.
Mr Salter believes the lag is due to two factors: the initial devaluation is often insufficient to stabilise the currency; and that devaluations frequently coincide with banking crises.
Unfortunately, this analysis probably tells us little about how Nigeria’s equity market is likely to behave in the year after any devaluation.
In the 13 previous episodes, the stock market typically fell 3 per cent in dollar terms in the three months after the start of the devaluation. However, as the above chart shows, there has been huge variability in this figure, from -56 per cent in Mexico in 1994-1995 to +100 per cent in South Korea in 1997-98.
Likewise, on average the typical stock market gained 4 per cent in dollar terms in the year after the devaluation, but once again this is the average of a widely dispersed data set, with the returns ranging from -86 per cent (Indonesia, 1997-98) to +172 per cent (South Korea).
The sector breakdown perhaps delivers a clearer message. RenCap found that consumer staples stocks have tended to outperform in the 12 months after the start of a devaluation, while consumer discretionary companies and industrials tend to pick up once the currency has bottomed.
Financial stocks, in contrast, tend to be the worst sector in the year after a devaluation, probably due to declining credit quality.
However, Senator Shehu Sani of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has defended President Buhari’s economics policies.
In a face book post he said: “From Washington post to Bloomberg and now Financial Times of London,our Peoples president is bashed ;those behind it knows themselves.They are those who are opposed to Buhari’s economics but have no liver to speak out to challenge him and now resorted to proxy attack and blackmail from the outside.They are pro Buhari in public and anti Buhari in private.They have again invented and planted a false story in the media that there’s crisis in PMB cabinet because of his signing of agreement with Dubai authorities.All is to stop PMB.God protect our president.”
The Financial Times UK has described the economic policies of the President Muhammadu Buhari administration as the ‘height of foolishness’.
The Financial Times UK has faulted President Muhammdu Buhari’s economic policies
The leading international business publication in an article by Steve Johnson, the deputy editor of the Financial Times, said the economic policies of the Buhari administration is doomed to fail because it is tailored after Venezuela’s exchange rate policy and China’s failed equity market strategy.
The article faulted the circuit breaker on the Nigerian stock exchange which pauses trading for 30 minutes if stock prices fall 5 per cent and will cease for the day if it is triggered twice in a session, or after 1.45pm.
It noted that this month, Beijing abandoned a similar policy after just four days, stating that in a falling market the existence of the circuit breaker encouraged more selling as traders rushed to exit while they could.
Quoting John Ashbourne, Africa economist at Capital Economics, it said:
“It is hardly confidence-inspiring that Nigeria is copying a Chinese policy that is widely seen to have failed."
Nigeria plans to create a $25 billion fund with public and private financing to modernize infrastructure and avoid a recession.
Copying Venezuela’s exchange rate policy and China’s failed equity market strategy might seem the height of foolishness.
But, at least in the opinion of John Ashbourne, Africa economist at Capital Economics, that is precisely what Nigeria, the continent’s largest economy, has just done.
“Low oil prices are battering Nigeria’s export-dependent economy, but it’s the government’s market-distorting response that risks pushing the country into a Venezuela-style crisis,” Mr Ashbourne says.
“Nigeria is sliding towards a Venezuela-style FX regime and adopting a Chinese-style stock market circuit breaker. Neither will reassure foreign investors, many of whom seem to be eyeing the exits.”
Both measures were announced after markets closed on Friday, January 15.
The circuit breaker on the Nigerian stock exchange, one of the worst performing in the world this year with a fall of 17.7 per cent, will pause trading for 30 minutes if stock prices fall 5 per cent. Trading will cease for the day if it is triggered twice in a session, or after 1.45pm.
This month, Beijing abandoned a similar policy after just four days, concluding that in a falling market the existence of the circuit breaker encouraged more selling as traders rushed to exit while they could.
“The effect is akin to calling last orders at a crowded bar,” Mr Ashbourne says. “It is hardly confidence-inspiring that Nigeria is copying a Chinese policy that is widely seen to have failed.”
He accepts that Nigeria’s circuit breaker may not be as badly designed as the Chinese version. Whereas the NSE All Share index rarely falls by 5 per cent a day, the Shanghai Composite did so a dozen times in 2015. The NSE’s version has not yet been called into action.
Nevertheless, Mr Ashbourne says that using a circuit breaker to shore up the market, rather than to avoid volatility, is “deeply flawed”.
Simultaneously, the central bank has said it will stop selling US dollars into the interbank FX market.
Nigeria has operated a de facto twin currency system for the naira since February 2015, when the bank held the official interbank rate at N199 to the dollar to avoid a spike in inflation. The unofficial rate, available at bureaux de change, has plunged to N300/$, as the first chart shows.
However Mr Ashbourne argues the latest move takes Nigeria a step along the road to a Venezuela-style scenario, where the dollar now buys 913 bolívars on the black market, according to dolartoday.com, compared with an unofficial rate of 6.28/$.
“Suspending US dollar sales to the interbank market will force consumers and firms to source dollars at bureaux de change,” he says, while providing an implicit subsidy for companies and individuals with the connections needed to access the official rate.
As the second chart shows, Nigeria’s reluctance to let the naira’s official exchange rate weaken means it has borne the brunt of the sharp fall in oil prices since the middle of 2014.
In naira terms, the oil price has fallen from $115 a barrel to around $35, with the modicum of weakening permitted so far doing little to take the edge off the fall in oil prices to $28 in dollar terms.
In contrast, Russia, which has allowed the rouble to fall sharply, is still seeing oil prices of around $65 in local currency terms, with many other oil exporters such as Brazil and Azerbaijan also seeing more cushioning of the blow than Nigeria.
Charles Robertson, chief global economist at Renaissance Capital, who drew up the second chart, expects Nigeria to bow to the seemingly inevitable and devalue the naira, given that his calculation of fair value is N305/$, very close to the current black market rate.
He notes that frontier market funds are now underweight Nigerian equities, and believes that international investors “are likely to remain on the sidelines,” barring an obvious catalyst for change.
Nevertheless he believes a devaluation to N250/$, “while no longer sufficient to ease all dollar shortages … would be good enough to warrant investors taking a fresh look at Nigeria, especially if they expect a rebound in the oil price”.
Daniel Salter, global equity strategist at RenCap, has been busy analysing just when equity market investors should consider returning to a freshly devalued Nigeria, if history is anything to go by.
Mr Salter analysed 13 emerging market currency devaluations since 1994 in countries ranging from Mexico and Turkey to Egypt and South Korea.
His conclusions are that it is rarely worth buying in anticipation of a currency devaluation and that, on average, equity markets do not hit their low point (in dollar terms) until 99 days after the start of the currency devaluation.
This delay can vary significantly, though, as the final chart shows. In the case of South Korea in 1997 the stock market troughed the day before the won started to fall. In Nigeria itself, in 2009, this point was reached after 35 days.
However in the cases of Thailand (1997), the Philippines (1998) and Egypt (2001), it would have paid equity market investors to stay out for at least six months.
Mr Salter believes the lag is due to two factors: the initial devaluation is often insufficient to stabilise the currency; and that devaluations frequently coincide with banking crises.
Unfortunately, this analysis probably tells us little about how Nigeria’s equity market is likely to behave in the year after any devaluation.
In the 13 previous episodes, the stock market typically fell 3 per cent in dollar terms in the three months after the start of the devaluation. However, as the above chart shows, there has been huge variability in this figure, from -56 per cent in Mexico in 1994-1995 to +100 per cent in South Korea in 1997-98.
Likewise, on average the typical stock market gained 4 per cent in dollar terms in the year after the devaluation, but once again this is the average of a widely dispersed data set, with the returns ranging from -86 per cent (Indonesia, 1997-98) to +172 per cent (South Korea).
The sector breakdown perhaps delivers a clearer message. RenCap found that consumer staples stocks have tended to outperform in the 12 months after the start of a devaluation, while consumer discretionary companies and industrials tend to pick up once the currency has bottomed.
Financial stocks, in contrast, tend to be the worst sector in the year after a devaluation, probably due to declining credit quality.
However, Senator Shehu Sani of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has defended President Buhari’s economics policies.
In a face book post he said: “From Washington post to Bloomberg and now Financial Times of London,our Peoples president is bashed ;those behind it knows themselves.They are those who are opposed to Buhari’s economics but have no liver to speak out to challenge him and now resorted to proxy attack and blackmail from the outside.They are pro Buhari in public and anti Buhari in private.They have again invented and planted a false story in the media that there’s crisis in PMB cabinet because of his signing of agreement with Dubai authorities.All is to stop PMB.God protect our president.”
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